This is some pretty freaking big news.
Attorney General Ken Paxton continues to lead Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) in polling for the 2026 U.S. Senate race, according to a new survey released on Wednesday.
The poll conducted by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University puts Paxton up 43 percent to Cornyn’s 34 percent in a head-to-head matchup among likely GOP primary voters.
The poll surveyed 1,200 registered voters, which is a pretty decent sample size this far out. The demographics of the poll (page 3) slightly oversamples women but otherwise isn’t too far out of line, and that mild oversample shouldn’t skew things Paxton’s way.
The race is already one of the most anticipated across the country with tens of millions of dollars expected to be spent just in the primary.
If Congressman Wesley Hunt (R-TX-38) — who is flirting with a run himself and is already running personal ads across the state — is thrown into the mix, Paxton polls at 34 percent to Cornyn’s 27 percent and Hunt’s 15 percent. Hunt is behind Paxton head-to-head by 30 points, while he’s only 8 points behind Cornyn.
Net favorable ratings among those Republican voters show Paxton at +46, Cornyn at +23, and Hunt at +30 — with 46 percent of respondents saying they don’t know enough about the last to have an opinion.
Cornyn has the highest percentage, 23 percent, of GOP respondents who said they would never vote for him, and Paxton has the highest percentage, 42 percent, of those who would “definitely consider” voting for him.
Half of GOP respondents said that an endorsement by President Donald Trump is likely to influence for whom they ultimately vote.
The survey included net favorable ratings for six potential 2026 U.S. Senate candidates — three Republicans and three Democrats — which showed among likely general election voters:
Colin Allred: +7, with 17 percent unknown Ken Paxton: EVEN, with 12 percent unknown Beto O’Rourke: -6, with 8 percent unknown John Cornyn: -8, with 14 percent unknown Joaquin Castro: +7, with 40 percent unknown Wesley Hunt: +9, with 53 percent unknown
I really only want to focus on the Republican numbers but, man, sure seems like Texas voters are suffering from Beto fatigue, doesn’t it?
All three Republicans are ahead of each potential Democratic candidate in head-to-head matchups, with the closest margin coming between Paxton and Allred, the former being 2 points up on the latter.
So far, the only two candidates in the race are Cornyn and Paxton, while Allred, O’Rourke, and Hunt have publicly stated their consideration of a run; Castro has only been evaluating the prospect behind the scenes.
I often say that polls this far out are meaningless, but a poll showing a challenger up big over an entrenched incumbent is the exception to that rule. The usual dynamic is that potential donors sit on the sidelines when a challenger goes after an entrenched incumbent out of fear that they might be throwing their money away. A poll result like this, showing Paxton significantly ahead of Cornyn, is likely to knock those fundraising spigots wide open. If memory serves, at this point in 2011, Ted Cruz was polling single digits against David Dewhurst.
Some will point out that Paxton, having successfully run statewide before, goes into the race with significantly more statewide recognition than the average challenger. This is true, but it wasn’t sufficient for Kay Baily Hutchison in her 2010 gubernatorial run against Rick Perry; save one margin of error 2 point lead for Hutchison, the polls in the race constantly showed Perry ahead. Likewise, it didn’t help George P. Bush in his primary attempt against Paxton in 2022, and I don’t remember a single poll showing Bush ahead.
Some readers have been asking for an update on this race. Well, now you have one. Cornyn is in serious trouble.